Creidt Crunch/Recession or is it being talked up?

[Miranda]

Went to see my Dad today and on the way back we popped into M&S/Tescos at Camberley as DD has shot up 4 inches over the summer and consequently none of her long sleeved Tshirts meet her tummy or go beyond her elbows and she's been cold in short sleeved ones.
Was amazed at the amount of junky Christmas pressies in M&S (you all know I'm scathing about pressies that serve no useful function) , but even more amazed at the number of people scrabbling round them and piling them into their trolleys.
So do we think that there is going to be a recession and people are spending out of it? Or are they determined to have a good Christmas regardless Or do they have more money than sense?Or is it so hyped up by the News on TV that everyone goes shopping to get away from it? FWIW I thought we were quieter than this time last year - but we're not, we're still up on t/o for the month compared with last year and we've still 2 days to go.

Couldn't find any non HSM Tshirts in M&S (why do they think all girls LIKE HSM??)nor any plain non grungy boys to suit her (she doesn't skateboard, will not wear Dr Who, and Tescos were a dead loss too), so if anyone has any ideas???

[lajlaj]

I think it is too soon to tell, right now this is an issue that has hit people selling their houses (or not as the case is), and bankers, possibly also a generation of people who are about to cash in their pensions.

It hasn't filtered down to the majority of everyone else yet but it will unless there are big changes. Small businesses aren't able to get essential short term loans to buy stock, which hits them and manufacturers, as they simply can't buy in the products they need as there are cashflow issues. Enough of these and manufacturers get into trouble and there will be lay offs there too. Because of the state of the pound/dollar purchasing from China and America is a nightmare right now - costs have gone up by almost 25% in six months, making many items very very expensive, and again this hits cash flow so people will order less. With less lines to sell and people having less money to spend may mean that post office works may be laid off.

Councils will have to cut services and jobs as they see their investments dwindle due to falling stock prices/banks crashing etc. That will lead to redundancies.

House builders and the housing trade are laying people off left right and center right now. This situation is more dire than anyone is admitting and we know from someone senior on the "inside" of one of the major housebuilders but that is all I can say on that.

Then of course you get on to tourism and so on - fuel surcharges mean more expensive travel, less money floating around the economy and there will be less people travelling abroad so more redundancies etc.

What I'm trying to say is that it is a stack of cards, you have seen some of the foudation cards tumble away but if they can't shore up the foundations then the stack of cards will eventually tumble, maybe a brick at a time but I think it is more likely to be quicker than that.

However, there are efforts all over the world to try to fill those foundations back in and I remain reasonably optomistic that whilst the stack may wobble and we ma lose an odd card here and there that it won't all fall flat, but, it all depends on whether they can do enough to stop the crash.

Oh what a happy little post from me!

[lajlaj]

Oh and whilst on the subject, I don't get why the media are "bigging it up" the way they are - I mean ffs - this affects everyone, including them - some of them must have houses to sell, money in the banks that have been affected, parents who need to draw their pension funds and yet they continue to blow things up like that, the reporting is excessive and sensational.

[Hannahlouise]

I don't know how it's going to pan out, but it is certainly making me nervous and more cautious in business decisions. I have scaled down the business plan to smaller safer steps than bigger riskier ones because of it....

[lajlaj]

I don't know how it's going to pan out, but it is certainly making me nervous and more cautious in business decisions. I have scaled down the business plan to smaller safer steps than bigger riskier ones because of it....

I actually think that is wise, we have just completely revisited everything we do and how we do it and over the next few weeks big big changes are afoot with regards to the range. I think you can still have big plans but you need to be more canny in the way they are implemented.

I also think it sensible to keep overheads to a minimum (says she who went against her own advice and recently moved to new offices).

[Miranda]

I did increase overheads in terms of better offices (slightly warmer), easier to operate from and is a more acceptable to have visitors location - that DOES work, we don't get many visitors yet but each month we've more than covered the extra cost from the profit on their sales. However I've decreased staff by half of a pt person last month and by another half this month so I'm going back to the original 3 staff - me, Carrie & Lisa with the advantage I have 2 trained up and willing and able to step in to help in an emergency/holidays/stock count.
I'm also (supposed to be) decreasing the stock we carry. This will filter in over the next 2-3 months as lines are sold out we'll drop them. I have noticed many suppliers are dropping product lines like flies whereas a year ago they were adding them at a rate of knots, the colour choices are going too which is a shame/pain as we get asked a lot for lines that have died. Suppliers are also struggling to get stock to us, another pain. I wish some suppliers would tell us they're not going to ship a line rather than it be a surprise when we open the box!

[blush]

I have noticed some supplies have dropped lines, and quite a few are saying they are having problems obtaining materials makes you wonder if this is down to cashflow?
I am cutting right down on stock we hold too and being a lot more catious with purchases.
If your business can survive this you will be alright when you come through it.I do think there has been a media frenzy but to be honest I think it has been there for along time just people haven't realised it.
Too many people have been living on the never ever for too long

[Miranda]

Unfortunately there's a whole generation of 'want it now'.

I'm perfectly happy with recycled - almost all our furniture apart from our bed is previously owned/freecycled/rescued from the skip. Can't justify buying new when there's so much not wanted, pity there is a credit crunch as I could do with new sofa/sofa cushions and I'd imagine demand for secondhand will increase.

[Chell]

DH will find out tomorrow if he still has a job or not. 8 out of 22 employees will be told that they are being made redundant. Apparently they don't need to get rid of so many right now but want to do it all in one go rather than have to let more go in a few months.

[Miranda]

Oh dear, fingers crossed he's OK.

[blush]

hope your hubbys job is ok Chell.Awful time of year.It happens every year though you can almost guarantee at least one employer where we .live will go bust at christmas time

[Chell]

Thanks, he works for a Builders Merchants, many of the building companies round here have laid off employees and stopped building new houses so the branch is struggling.

[antonia]

DH will find out tomorrow if he still has a job or not. 8 out of 22 employees will be told that they are being made redundant. Apparently they don't need to get rid of so many right now but want to do it all in one go rather than have to let more go in a few months.

Hope he's OK Chell

[antonia]

, I don't get why the media are "bigging it up" the way they are.
I think it is another case of the media irresponsibly failing to realise that they are making things worse and changing people's behavious by over reporting something.

[blush]

The media have an awful lot to answer for I think.
People are scared to commit to anything and as for buying new houses they ARE PROBABLY WAITING FOR the price crash that the media is predicting which isn't doing anyone any favours.